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sir_quirky_k ([info]sir_quirky_k) wrote,
@ 2007-07-30 22:42:00

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Brief update
* EUC: rather good. Webcast: not so, it wasn't working. But I have recorded commentary highlights onto dictaphone from an Ireland v Italy group-phase match, which turned out to be a very interesting one to follow. These recordings could yet be mildly useful for the outside chance of a career in commentary that was suggested to me a while back.

* Aunt Maureen is, I think, a christian-pragmatist; she has an authoritarian think-of-the-children streak, but a very well-meaning one, and she has a liberal-socialist streak in her too (at the least, she opposed the Iraq war). The christian spiritualism seems to take a back seat these days, and that is nothing but a good thing considering she is a foster carer. It suits her, she's unquestionably a big kid and has a real affinity with children. That's what she does.

* It is anything but what I do.

* As such, things are rather awkward here, until I get control of either the PC or the TV. With cable!

* Whaddya know, Challenge's Millionaire reruns are at autumn 2003, and today came two undisputed forgotten classics. The second was Rob Mitchell's £218k loss - and good grief, I'd forgotten he'd 'done a Skillings' and stormed through the first twelve without a lifeline. One line here that proves Tarrant would save the Endemol Bunker: 'You've got a quarter of a million. It's your call.' Before that...

*A 17-year-old contestant made it to £64,000 with 50:50 remaining, having used up his other two lifelines in the first seven questions. Now, the primary reader of this blog has been told several times now that in this situation I would unquestionably answer the next question even on a wild guess at present property values. Transposing the utility curve of my 21-year-old self of 2007 back to 1998, I'd be a great deal more tempted to cut and run.

Now, look back again. Late-2003 episode. I'm 21 now, mid-2007. How old was I in late 2003? Yup, 17. More relevantly to this: this was the early phase of the three-year rebellion. My first university application had been made, and my heart was set on Reading for (neither of you will believe this) International Securities and Investment Banking. (Yes, quite glad I changed my mind on that one at least. I'm not mathematical enough for that, nor am I amoral enough.)

Lawks, I don't know what I'd do in 2003. I didn't have the same grasp of utility as I do now - that came with the one UK series of Deal or No Deal before it was replaced with the structurally-identical Noel's Gambling Party some time in 2006. I suspect I'd have gone for it on the grounds of pot odds, which appeared to be what this contestant did too, although he also mentioned 'I'm only here once' a few times - a misunderstanding of utility theory readily encouraged on daytime television three years after this aired originally.

Oh, and he lost. If you really thought this through, even if you hadn't seen this before, you'd have known it was a loss simply because if it hadn't, and he'd gone away with something in six figures, I'd have been able to look up his name.

* May have mentioned this in Birmingham to [info]daweaver, but if not, or even if so, here it is. A fellow Aspie, upon hearing about my independence-driven utility curve, suggested a refinement, one that particularly affects the lower end of the curve; the function should depend upon comfort. Freedom from parental intervention is a part of this, but primarily at the base of the curve, and the argument was that I may have pretty much handled this already. Still won't stop me defining the top of the curve by the property market though, a place to call my own is of enormous benefit in comfort as well as independence. And there's something to affect the curve somewhere; furnishings. The softer the better, generally; I've mentioned my mild hypersensitivity regarding taste, sight and sound in some form, but it applies to touch too (oddly, not to smell; that is, by far, my weakest sense) and I very much have a liking for handling soft textures.


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[info]daweaver
2007-07-31 07:16 pm UTC (link)
EUC: rather good. Webcast: not so, it wasn't working.

We noticed, gave up, listened to the cricket. Well, at least England avoided an 18:0 defeat...

Aunt Maureen [sernip!]

So, basically, she's a Doing Good Works kind of person, for values of %Good Works% that involve looking after children for people who cannot or will not. I have no objection at all to this kind of thing, so long as it is not used as an excuse to prosletyse, encourage conversion, or otherwise advance a religious belief.

I should point out an article I wrote a year or so ago on the subject of charity. Tzedakah. Bless you.

* It is anything but what I do.

Mmm, hordes of thcweaming bwats. Lovely. [reaches for the shotgun.]

The second was Rob Mitchell's £218k loss - and good grief, I'd forgotten he'd 'done a Skillings' and stormed through the first twelve without a lifeline.

Got a bit too cocky, did that chap.

My first university application had been made, and my heart was set on Reading for (neither of you will believe this) International Securities and Investment Banking.

The advantages of taking a gap year, there.

I suspect I'd have gone for it on the grounds of pot odds, which appeared to be what this contestant did too, although he also mentioned 'I'm only here once' a few times - a misunderstanding of utility theory readily encouraged on daytime television three years after this aired originally.

I would suggest to anyone that they go for it in this situation, unless they have good reason to suspect that their utility curve has a point of inflection between £32,000 and £64,000, and thereafter remains with a negative second derivative.

This rule generalises.

the function should depend upon comfort.

Valid consideration. It's your utility function, do with it what you will.

And there's something to affect the curve somewhere; furnishings. The softer the better, generally.

Mmm. You can do a lot with relatively little money - change the curtains, add a few rugs, and it's a different room. Beyond that, it's major projects like ripping up carpets, and new three-piece suites, and that's somewhat more pricey.

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[info]sir_quirky_k
2007-07-31 09:57 pm UTC (link)
I think you've hit the nail on the head with Aunt Maureen.

Yes, Mitchell was rather overconfident, and paid for it. Arguably his equivalent from the Endemol bunker was Fin, who squandered £34,000 and then twisted someone else into squandering £7,495. And then won it all back and then some on One Against One Hundred, and that big win felt more painful than his prior big loss.

Saturday is the day to try and tune in again, for that is Finals Day; at present it seems as though continuous commentary won't make it to the studio, but updates from me hopefully will, and recordings will hopefully be available in retrospect at some point too.

I would suggest to anyone that they go for it in this situation, unless they have good reason to suspect that their utility curve has a point of inflection between £32,000 and £64,000, and thereafter remains with a negative second derivative.

This rule generalises.


In my case, so preventing me from taking the same gamble on question 13, for I have a point of inflection at (roughly) £100,000, and never mind a negative second derivative, the first derivative is near enough zero once into six figures. (Maybe it would take a little longer were I to live in London. But I've almost completely ruled out the mere thought, and indeed would rather not live anywhere bigger than Southampton.

Should I be somewhat less fortunate with the question stack and get into this situation on the second tier; I certainly wouldn't go for Q10 or Q9. Q8, probably.

Regarding furnishings, living in halls obviously reduces the scope drastically, but a rug might actually be a valid option, and I'll seriously consider it upon my return. At present, my main sources of comfort in Southampton are two moderately large square cushions; the soft toys I won in Blackpool may be coming to Southampton, and they'd be secondary sources.

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[info]jiggery_pokery
2007-09-03 08:12 pm UTC (link)
It took me a long, long time to realise that the reason why the new Millionaire tree is so badly kinked around the 20k / 50k / 75k / 150k axis is a fine balance on the perceptions of people's utility curves. It's as ugly as all hell but it just might work - and it's probably in some sense a purer way of incentivising people to take the risk than prodding from the host.

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[info]sir_quirky_k
2007-09-11 01:09 pm UTC (link)
Unquestionably. I suppose the equivalent in Bristol would be low offers...

Might work. Has the advantage of increasing the number of risk-takers (with possible increased entertainment value) without implicitly endorsing avarice (which would be a dangerous thing to do in my opinion). I will say that the 16k / 25k / 50k / 100k used in the US syndicated version has had remarkably little impact in stopping people playing Q10, and $15k losses are far, far more common than they really should be. I would go as far as to call it 'alarming'.

Tarrant will never act like Edmonds, although like the evilly-shirted one he is also a great entertainer and can joke about it. He actually went on speeches very similar to Noel's when a contestant walked away in spite of an inclination towards an answer... usually to tell them that in fact, their inclination was wrong. When I saw one this year, I thought (and said on my blog, in fact) that it was likely to be a deliberate parody of Noel. In fact, he's been doing them since at least October 2000 (the original airdate of the oldest Challenge repeat where I've seen him do it). When he did do that speech on a right answer, he instantly responded with something the opposite, and it was obvious no malice was intended - something you most certainly couldn't say of Edmonds.

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